Delusionally Dangerous

The war with Iran may be ending with Israel following orders rather than forging its own destiny

The news is constantly changing, so perhaps by the time you read this, the ceasefire deal will have been signed, or tabled altogether, or some other option we have not even considered. Nevertheless, these are my thoughts as of 4 PM Israel time on May 26, 2026:

President Donald Trump is touting his latest attempt at officially ending the United States and Israel’s war against Iran. While the war could have concluded in many different ways, and may yet continue given Iran’s insistence on negotiating as if it is the absolute victor, the ceasefire Trump is apparently choosing is among the least welcome to Israelis of all political stripes.

Let’s briefly examine some of the reasons that this is true.

The stated goals of the war were to end Iran’s nuclear ambitions, to destroy its stockpiles of ballistic missiles and prevent their reconstitution, and to force Iran to stop funding terrorist proxies such as Hezbollah, Hamas, and the Houthis. Additionally, there was guarded optimism that the war would lead to regime change - which, of course, would be the biggest game changer of all.

Should Iran accept the ceasefire proposal - for indeed, most indications are that the U.S. is waiting for Iran’s response, rather than the other way around - not one of these four goals will have been reached.¹

The United States repeatedly insists that its true red line is any Iranian ability to acquire a nuclear weapon. But according to almost all reports, the ceasefire deal kicks the can down the road, with a mutual agreement to discuss the nuclear issue over the next sixty days, alongside a commitment from Iran to forswear procuring a nuclear weapon. This commitment, obviously, means nothing, as Iran has always asserted that it has no interest in acquiring nuclear weapons, yet all Western intelligence services are certain that Iran has simply been lying. Delaying the resolution of the nuclear issue is irresponsible, especially with Trump hinting about accepting a twenty year moratorium rather than an absolute prohibition on uranium enrichment; insisting on a restatement of a commitment that Iran never took seriously is a sad joke.

Meanwhile, the other goals are effectively off the table and not even discussed in any potential deal.

It is important to note that Iran’s economy, which has been weakening for years, is teetering on the edge of complete ruin. Years of sanctions, alongside the regime’s insistence on funding proxies and building its military at the expense of helping its people, have decimated the economy; the war last June and the recent bombing by the United States and Israel have further undermined Iran’s financial stability. Recall that the most recent unrest in Iran was instigated by shopkeepers and merchants who were protesting massive inflation and the collapse of the local currency (the Iranian rial currently trades at 1.3 million rial to one dollar, even as the official government rate is 42,000 rial to the dollar - demonstrating that the official value of the rial is approximately 3% of its free market value).

Many Israeli experts continue to believe that the Islamist regime in Iran is on its last legs; with its worthless currency and flailing economy, along with the absence of a powerful figure around whom the country can rally, the fall of the regime is viewed by some as just a matter of time.

Accordingly, Trump’s apparent willingness to throw the regime a lifeline in the form of sanctions relief and the unfreezing of Iranian assets is gifting earth’s most despicable regime a life preserver right when it is likely at its most vulnerable. And because the ceasefire does not, as far as we know, prohibit Iranian adventurism beyond its borders, we can surmise that much of that money will be used to help rebuild Hezbollah and Iran’s other terrorist proxies, alongside the replenishing of its own depleted weapon stockpiles.

Thus the ceasefire that is being discussed not only ignores the war’s goals, but actively works to undermine them.

Perhaps even more troubling, however, is the implicit message being sent to Israel through Trump’s willingness to negotiate with Iran without any input from its erstwhile partner, Israel, while simultaneously insisting that Israel fall in line with whatever negotiated settlement results from these negotiations. (Trump recently reminded us that Netanyahu will “do whatever I want him to do.”)

There is something almost pathetic about a negotiated settlement to a conflict where one of the three combatants is not invited to participate in the negotiations, and where the negotiations take place in a country, Pakistan, which doesn’t even recognize the existence of that now-ignored country, and where that third country will be expected to abide by whatever ceasefire is negotiated, regardless of whether it is in that country’s best interests. Yet the consequences for Israel are very real and potentially tragic: even during the past seven weeks of relative quiet on the Iranian front, Israel’s hands have been tied by the U.S. government, stopping it from fighting appropriately and decisively against Hezbollah’s continued attacks, lest a powerful Israeli response undermine those same negotiations that don’t include Israel at all.

Every account of the emerging ceasefire includes Iran’s insistence that Israel’s war with Hezbollah be concluded immediately; the deal will unquestionably limit - implicitly or otherwise - Israel’s freedom of action against Iran’s Lebanese proxy. Consider the absurdity of a terrorist army which fires missiles, drones, rockets, and mortars over the border with its neighbor, yet which is protected by a deal between two different countries such that the country under attack does not retain full freedom of action. Ignore Secretary of State Marco Rubio’s assurance that Israel will be allowed to protect itself from Hezbollah - for that is exactly what Israel has been doing since Hezbollah began firing at Israel in early March, and that is exactly what Iran demands that Israel no longer continue doing.

Finally, this negotiated ceasefire is likely a literal death sentence for the Iranian protestors who took to the streets in December and January, and who took Trump seriously when he told them that “Help is on its way” and “Iranian Patriots, keep protesting – take over your institutions!!!” Some actually believed him - and now, with Trump’s willingness to grant legitimacy to an Iranian regime which is still very much in power and has shown no hesitation to execute any and all enemies of its Islamic Revolution, he is effectively washing his hands of the situation. The same president who encouraged Iranian protestors to fill the streets is now giving the Iranian government license to kill the people who counted on American might and benevolence.

Some will argue that a 60 day ceasefire is not a capitulation, and that opening the Strait of Hormuz is an absolute economic necessity that overrides other concerns. Unfortunately, this reflects the differing perspectives of the United States, located thousands of miles away from the arena of combat, and Israel, which remains on the front lines and is the first and primary target of Iran and its terrorist allies, now and in the future. Temporary ceasefires tend to become the status quo; a subsequent return to fighting is very unlikely, no matter the belligerence that Iran displays. Meanwhile, prudence for the West can mean destruction for the State of Israel… even as an emboldened, nuclear Iran will prove to be disastrous for all democratic nations.

None of this means that the fight against Iran was lost, or a waste of time and resources. On all military fronts, Iran has been set back significantly. Six weeks of aerial bombardment by the world’s two best air forces, on top of Israel’s twelve-day onslaught last June, has degraded Iran’s missile stocks, its industrial capacity, and its nuclear program. Iran is less dangerous to Israel and the world than it was several months ago, or before Israel’s attacks last June, or certainly before October 7th, 2023. Iran’s ability to put a chokehold on the Strait of Hormuz is not greater now than in the past, even though the West lacked the foresight to fully understand how powerful this potential weapon could be.

As Yaakov Katz presciently said, there is a difference between success and victory; and while the war has unquestionably been successful, whether or not the United States and Israel were victorious will only be determined in the future. It is indeed unfortunate that President Trump has decided to hand Iran a victory, while undermining the many successes that have taken place since February 28th. Trump apparently believes that saying that the U.S. is victorious and that Iran already underwent regime change makes it so - and this delusional attitude will make the Middle East a far more dangerous place than it would have otherwise been.

1. While regime change was never an official goal of the war, Israel and the United States both indicated that they were hoping that such a result would materialize.