Playing Operation In Iran
Saying the obvious, because too many people prefer to ignore the obvious facts
Michael Scott: I am on a lecture circuit!… Pam is coming along as my assistant and my driver so I can focus. So what we do is we drive all day, and we stay in hotels together.
Pam Beesley: Separate rooms.
Michael: Well, that goes without saying.
Pam: I’m gonna say it anyway.
(The Office, Season 5 Episode 16, “Lecture Circuit”)
In the spirit of Pam’s “I’m gonna say it anyway,” I’m offering a timeline as we contemplate whether tonight’s Iranian barrage of ten missiles (so far) is the beginning of another round of intense warfare, or blip during the ongoing ceasefire negotiations between the United States and Iran:
On October 7th, 2023, Hamas invaded Israel’s south from Gaza, killing 1200 people and kidnapping another 251.
On October 8th, Hezbollah attacked Israel, as well. This was in response to, and in support of, Hamas’ attack the day before. Israel’s north was largely evacuated, and remained empty of civilians for over a year.
Israel responded to Hezbollah’s relentless rocket fire. Yet Hezbollah’s unprovoked attacks continued.
After approximately thirteen months of battle, and after suffering multiple humiliating losses, Hezbollah finally agreed to a ceasefire - a ceasefire which reiterated UNSCR 1701, demanding the disarmament of Hezbollah and requiring the terrorist group to keep its forces north of Lebanon’s Litani River. Time would demonstrate that Hezbollah did not abide by these conditions, and, in fact, worked to restore its military as much as possible.
On June 13th, 2025, Israel launched a surprise attack against Iran, destroying much of its nuclear infrastructure. Far from being an unprovoked attack, this was a direct response to Iran’s decades-old proxy war on Israel (which was supposed to destroy the Jewish state while keeping Iranian assets far away from the field of battle), and Iran’s obvious attempts to build nuclear weapons which were primarily designed to be fired at Israel. After twelve days of Israeli bombing, which included the United States employing its B-2 bombers to fire bunker-buster munitions into deeply buried nuclear sites, the Trump administration declared a ceasefire.
Beginning on December 28th, 2025, Iranian civilians began demonstrating against the Islamic regime. These demonstrations, which were largely centered upon the government’s economic incompetence, were the largest since the 1979 revolution, and were met by an Iranian government crackdown on January 8th and 9th, which killed untold thousands of civilians - according to Time Magazine, over 30,000 people.
In response to the murders of the demonstrators, reportedly ordered by Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei himself, President Trump indicated that he would consider using the United States military to come to the rescue of the protestors.
At the same time, Prime Minister Netanyahu hinted that Israel wanted to join the U.S. in any military action in order to further degrade the Iranian nuclear threat, prevent Iranian funding of proxy armies, and destroy its ballistic missile capability.
On February 28th, 2026, the United States and Israel initiated a joint military operation against Iran.
Two days later, Hezbollah again began firing at Israel’s northern communities. In response, the IDF invaded Lebanon and announced that because the Lebanese army was both unable and unwilling to disarm Hezbollah, it would do so by itself - starting by creating a buffer zone so that Hezbollah would find it increasingly hard to reach Israel’s border communities with its rockets, missiles, drones, and artillery.
On April 8th, the United States and Iran agreed to implement a two-week ceasefire, which President Trump extended indefinitely on April 21st. Despite Pakistan’s claims to the contrary, Israel and the United States asserted that the ceasefire did not extend to Lebanon.
On April 16th, under pressure from the United States, Israel agreed to a ceasefire in Lebanon, while saying that it would maintain its forces in the newly-created buffer zone. The ceasefire also gave Israel license to continue defensive actions against Hezbollah - which, notably, was not a signatory to the agreement. Hezbollah announced that it would abide by the ceasefire as long as Israel left Lebanese soil - a condition that was never part of the ceasefire agreement.
From the moment the ceasefire was announced, Hezbollah continued firing drones at IDF positions. Israel, in turn, responded to these attacks.
Before long, Hezbollah began firing into Israeli communities as well as toward the IDF.
The ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon was ostensibly renewed on June 4th, after the U.S., Israel, and Lebanon issued a joint statement the day before that asserted, “The ceasefire is contingent on a complete cessation of Hezbollah fire and the evacuation of all Hezbollah operatives from the South Litani Sector.”
Israel declared that should Hezbollah violate the ceasefire and attack Israeli communities, Israel would attack Hezbollah positions in Beirut.
This morning, Hezbollah fired rockets at two Israeli communities, Ramot Naftali and Yiftah.
In response, Israel bombed a Hezbollah headquarters in its Beirut stronghold of Dahiyeh.
Iran, claiming to respond to Israeli aggression, fired ten ballistic missiles at Israel tonight. Thankfully, they were all intercepted.
Meanwhile, President Trump announced that he was upset that Israel had bombed the Hezbollah building in Beirut, and would insist that Israel not respond to the Iranian missile attacks.
My conclusions are pretty obvious, but I’m gonna say them anyway.
Trump’s abject foolishness and shallow nature have never been more on display than they are tonight. He has repeatedly shown that, far from being the strategic genius claimed by his defenders, he thinks only one step ahead, if that. His true-believing fans like to talk about how he plays three dimensional chess, when in fact he is playing the kids’ game Operation, trying to remove the funny bone without making the patient’s red nose buzz - and failing at that, too.
(President Trump’s favorite game isn’t chess, it’s Operation… and he’s clearly losing.)
Apparently, Trump wants Israel to allow Hezbollah attack the Israeli civilian population with impunity, without any real consequence. And tonight he wants Israel to let Iran respond to Israel’s defensive operations while restraining Israel from responding at all.
We all know that a failure to respond to Islamist terrorist actions - and make no mistake, every last Hezbollah rocket is nothing but a form of terrorism, given that Hezbollah started the war on Israel’s north and refuses to stop it - emboldens the terrorists to continue their terrorist activity. Iran, Hezbollah, Hamas, and the rest are watching carefully to see if Israel is cowed by Trump’s implicit threats. If Netanyahu does nothing, the Iranian axis of terror will have received a very clear message of support from the American president.
Had Trump understood that Hezbollah is a Shia version of al-Qaeda, which exists in order to destroy, perhaps he would give Israel greater license. But Trump is not that smart, and he doesn’t care. His constant foolish declarations about Israel’s enemies indicate that he still believes, against all evidence to the contrary, that Hamas, Hezbollah, and the lRGC really, deep down, want the same things that he does: peace and prosperity for their people. He refuses to believe the hard truth that their members would rather die than to accept the existence of Israel - and his stubborn and unsupported belief in this laughable fantasy, as well as in his own peacemaking abilities, has become a massive liability for Israel.
Trump is the ultimate mixed blessing: Israel has been able to fight against Iran in ways that would have been impossible had Biden remained president; and Israel ties its own hands in deference to Trump’s demands in ways that it never would had Biden remained president - because Israel knows that to earn the wrath of Trump would be practically suicidal.
Iran has called its missile salvo a response to Israel’s bombing of Hezbollah in Beirut; Israel, Iran claimed, had crossed all red lines, and it threatened further attacks should Israel continue its “aggression.”
Iran is nothing but a schoolyard bully, who likes to dish it out but cries bitter tears as soon as the victim of its aggression decides to hit back. The facts speak for themselves: Hamas, Hezbollah, and Iran are all decidedly on the same team and share a common defense strategy and alliance; Iran, Hezbollah, and Hamas started a war that Israel had no interest in fighting; Iran, Hezbollah, and Hamas have repeatedly violated any ceasefires to which they have agreed; Iran, Hezbollah, and Hamas share the modus operandi of wantonly attacking Israel and then, when Israel responds, complaining about Israeli aggression and violations.
Meanwhile, let the record show that the Democratic Party has largely decided that it would rather side with the monsters of the Iranian axis than with Israel, which is fighting for its existence and for freedom in the Middle East. Trump is a child who is playing a child’s game; the Democrats are, by and large, adults who give lip service to Israel’s right to defend itself, while immediately undermining this by saying how wrong Israel has been to defend itself. Declaring that “Israel has gone too far” with false moral authority is a meaningless statement when it is not accompanied by an explanation of what, exactly, Israel should have done instead - and that explanation is never forthcoming, except among those who simply say that Israel should cease to exist altogether.
Too many Democratic politicians pretend that they are impartial moral arbiters, when, in fact, they are simply displaying anti-Israel animus. Witness their now ceaseless refrain about the need to reject AIPAC dollars, with nary a mention of a requirement not to take Qatari money - this, despite the fact that AIPAC, like hundreds of other lobbying groups, is funded by American voters, whereas Qatar itself has spent over $400 billion in its attempts to influence U.S. policy and policy makers.
In spite of their claims to the contrary, many Democrats are now siding with the Iranian bully.
The next few hours may have massive implications for Netanyahu’s reelection prospects. Should he cave and choose not to respond to Iran’s wanton aggression, he will appear decidedly weak, like a puppet who acquiesces to Trump’s demands; if he responds militarily despite Trump’s threats, deciding that he must despite the diplomatic price, he will undermine his claim that he alone knows how to handle the American president.
Of course, he might convince Trump that he should respond - which itself would actually support his claim that he can handle Trump in ways that no other Israeli politician can.
Be ready, no matter what happens, for the events of tonight to be a constant talking point during the lead up to the Israeli elections over the coming months.
I would say to pass the popcorn - but the stakes are too high, and the prospects of continued Israeli government dysfunction too depressing. Maybe pass the Alka-Seltzer instead.
Playing “operation” has to be one of the all time great observations of this crisis.
There seems to me to be no alternative but for Israel to fight on all of its fronts at the same time and that both in Lebanon and in Iran there is now a need to show that we will not be cowed by their semi-random behaviour nor by Trump's meddling and lack of understanding. However we do need support from our alley, the US.